AGP Executive Report

US-Iran MoU and Hormuz reopening: The US and Iran have agreed a preliminary framework to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a Geneva signing expected soon; Egypt called it a “turning point” for regional peace, while markets cheered as oil slid and risk assets rallied. Maritime fees and blockade details: Iran says it will charge service and environmental protection fees for ships transiting Hormuz, while the US expects “toll-free” access; meanwhile, reporting says the US naval blockade remains in place until the MoU is signed. Climate and energy ripple effects: Analysts warn the conflict’s energy, shipping, fertilizer and food shocks could linger for months or even years, even if fighting eases. COP30 energy-transition roadmap: COP30’s presidency unveiled key principles for a fair, orderly energy transition roadmap ahead of COP31 in Türkiye, emphasizing differentiated responsibilities and support for fossil-fuel-dependent communities. Local clean-industry moves: Egypt announced a new-energy vehicle manufacturing partnership (ROX ESI Egypt) and discussed an executive framework to implement its FDI strategy with the World Bank. Decarbonization in the region: Henkel said it achieved carbon-neutral production at sites in India and Türkiye by electrifying processes and shifting to renewable power. West Bank displacement: Reporting describes “spatial restructuring” demolitions in refugee camps to widen roads for military vehicles, raising serious humanitarian and environmental concerns.

Energy & Climate Shock: An analysis warns the US-Iran conflict is turning into a wider energy, logistics, fertilizer, food and financial shock that could keep global systems disrupted into 2027, with oil and shipping uncertainty feeding inflation and growth risks. Gulf Shipping & Oil Prices: Markets cheered a US-Iran framework to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil lower and easing some inflation fears, while Cyprus hailed the de-escalation as a step toward freedom of navigation. Regional Security Fallout: Israel’s defence minister said IDF deployments in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza will stay “indefinitely,” raising the odds of continued displacement and environmental damage from ongoing strikes. Water & Food Risks: Reports say the conflict is already hitting water and food systems via higher fuel and fertilizer costs, with the World Bank warning food-price pressure and debt stress across emerging economies. Clean Energy & Industry: Egypt says its LNG supply system is ready for summer demand, while SNEC PV+ coverage highlights growing Middle East interest in energy storage as grid resilience becomes a priority. Biodiversity & Conservation: Turkey’s Gulf of Gökova shows how marine protection can help fish stocks recover, with conservation rangers and local involvement credited for gains. Agritech & Farming Resilience: Syngenta and India’s partners signed onto an open-data agri-intelligence push aimed at helping farmers manage climate and pest risks with real-time guidance. Protest & Climate Justice: A Geneva G7 protest turned violent, and a UK report documents harsh policing and jail time for climate and Palestine solidarity demonstrators.

Climate Diplomacy & COP31 Prep: Turkey’s COP31 presidency unveiled a three-part target focused on faster electrification, cutting waste growth, and improving building energy efficiency—aimed at a 1.5°C-consistent pathway and backed by IEA/IRENA analysis. Middle East Energy Security: Kuwait highlighted renewables as a hedge against conflict-driven power risks, pointing to the Shagaya Renewable Energy Park’s plan to reach 15% of electricity by 2030. Lebanon Environment & Health Allegations: Lebanon accused Israel of spraying glyphosate herbicide near the border, saying lab tests found high concentrations and filed a complaint with the UN. G7 Protests With Environmental Angle: In Geneva ahead of the Evian G7, protesters clashed with police, firing tear gas and targeting symbols tied to inequality and consumption, including a Tesla and UN-linked buildings. Fuel Shock Hits Livelihoods: Mozambique fishermen stayed ashore as Middle East-linked fuel price spikes and erratic supply squeezed costs, deepening hardship for coastal communities. Renewables in the Gulf Economy: Saudi data showed near-universal internet access and rising AI use among establishments, reinforcing the region’s push for digital capacity that can support cleaner energy systems.

US-Iran Energy Shock: A new analysis warns the Middle East conflict is turning into a wider energy, shipping, fertilizer, food and financial drag that could keep global systems disrupted through 2027, even if fighting eases. Humanitarian Logistics: UN agencies say aid shipments are still moving but face delays and higher costs as maritime routes around the Strait of Hormuz get disrupted. Digital Environment Push: Bahrain marked World Environment Day with a “digital decluttering” drive that deleted 15,685GB of data and estimated 3.13 tonnes of CO₂ avoided annually. Local Climate-Tech: Jordanian energy expert Eng. Mubarak Al-Tahrawi argues Jordan’s gas, oil shale and minerals are under-invested, calling for rebuilding exploration capacity. Water Infrastructure Under Fire: Iran accuses the US of striking drinking-water reservoirs in southern Iran, raising fresh concerns about attacks on civilian infrastructure. Aviation & Emissions: IATA projects slower global passenger growth in 2026 as Middle East tensions lift fuel costs and strain airline demand.

Energy shock from Iran war: A new analysis warns the US-Iran conflict is turning into a long-running energy, shipping, fertilizer, food and financial shock, with global normalization possibly taking months or years even if fighting eases. Methane transparency: The IEA’s Global Methane Tracker 2026 uses satellite-based readings to revise how much methane oil and gas producers leak, including in the UAE—an approach that could tighten enforcement from 2027. Wildfire risk in Kurdistan: Erbil recorded 150+ fires in six months, largely linked to arson, cigarette filters and farmers burning crop residue—highlighting weak enforcement and extreme-heat vulnerability. Local climate resilience: Iran opened the Mianeh–Ardabil railway after 20+ years of construction, while Jordanian and regional reporting continues to spotlight how energy and resource planning shape environmental outcomes. Food and energy prices: Bangladesh’s May inflation rose to 9.42%, driven by higher food, housing and transport costs tied to global energy prices. Regional energy cooperation: The US, Greece, Cyprus and Israel moved to launch an Eastern Mediterranean Energy Center to bolster gas and LNG development and energy security.

Waste & Services in Iraq: Baqubah’s waste collection is struggling under shortages of garbage compactors, diesel and sanitation staff, leaving the city unable to fully handle about 600 tons of daily waste. Climate Extremes & Water Stress: NOAA confirms El Niño is underway, with warnings it could intensify global warming and bring dry spells, heat waves and water stress across the region, plus flood risk later in the year. Energy Shock & Food/Fertilizer Ripple Effects: A new analysis says the US-Iran conflict is turning into a wider energy, logistics, fertilizer and food shock that could weigh on global growth through 2027 even if fighting eases. Water Security Tech: A solar-thermal desalination approach claims drinking water from seawater without chemical additives and with less harmful brine, while also extracting lithium from salts. Local Conservation & Health: Minya, Egypt plans its first dedicated stray dog shelter and sterilization center, linking unmanaged waste to a surge in dog breeding and aiming to curb rabies through mass vaccination. Archaeology & Heritage: Egypt’s Nile Delta site at Tel Kom Aziza has revealed a Greco-Roman cemetery with varied burial practices and rare wild boar burials. Regional Climate Governance: Countries backed a landmark UN resolution supporting the ICJ’s climate accountability stance, with only a small group voting against.

Water Infrastructure Under Fire: A transcript response by Iranian scientist Kaveh Madani warns U.S. strikes on drinking-water reservoirs normalize attacks on civilian infrastructure, with rural communities in Iran losing water supply and wider health and ecosystem risks. COP31 Prep in Turkey: Turkey’s Istanbul Zero Waste Forum previews COP31 priorities, linking waste reduction, circular economies, and financing to climate resilience ahead of the November summit. UAE Circular Textiles: The UAE launched Naseej, a national textile circularity initiative aimed at cutting waste from an estimated 220,000 tons of discarded textiles yearly through collection, sorting, recycling, and reuse. Energy Security vs Emissions: China’s Inner Mongolia plans to scale coal-to-oil, coal-to-gas and coal-to-chemicals to reduce import reliance, even as the process raises CO2 concerns. Regional Climate Risk: A report flags climate fragility deepening displacement risks across MENA. Agriculture & Soil Health: A study finds wheat shapes soil microbes’ functions, pointing to new crop-breeding paths for resilience. Markets on Iran Hopes: Green stocks jumped on renewed US-Iran deal optimism, though analysts warn it may not last.

Environmental Monitoring & Labs: Qatar’s environment ministry inspected its Environmental Monitoring and Inspection Department’s Environmental Laboratory, reviewing how samples are tested for pollutants and concentrations to track the state’s environmental status. Climate Risk & Food/Weather: NOAA says El Niño has formed in the tropical Pacific and could intensify to historic “super” levels, with major knock-on effects for monsoons, food and economies across the Middle East and beyond. Plastic Waste Dumping: Greenpeace Turkey says EU plastic waste exports to Turkey hit an all-time high of 503,000 tonnes in 2025, warning of growing dumping and pollution risks. Water & Climate Tech: Cyprus launched EarthView Cyprus to turn near-real-time satellite data into practical tools for wildfire, drought, sea monitoring and smarter farming. Energy Shock Watch: The World Bank cut its global growth forecast to 2.5%, citing the Iran war’s energy-market disruption and inflation pressures. Sustainable Finance Angle: Egypt and the World Bank discussed financing agri-processing platforms, including aggregation centers and cold storage to cut climate-linked losses.

Climate Risk Watch: El Niño has officially formed and scientists warn it could become one of the biggest on record, turbocharging heat, floods, droughts and wildfires—an urgent warning for a warming world. Middle East Energy & Inflation: The World Bank cut its global growth forecast to 2.5% for 2026, citing Iran-war spillovers via higher energy prices and inflation, and pledged up to $60bn in immediate support for hardest-hit developing countries. Water & Coastal Recovery: Alabama’s Gulf coast is set to receive $87m in RESTORE Act funding for Deepwater Horizon restoration projects, aiming to repair waterways and protect coastal communities. Regional Resources & Extraction: Jordanian energy experts argue the country’s gas, oil shale and mineral potential isn’t being fully developed, pointing to weakened exploration capacity and calling for renewed geological institutions. Energy Infrastructure Trust: Egypt says it has fully cleared about $6.1bn in oil and gas arrears to foreign partners, a move meant to boost investor confidence and reinforce its energy-hub ambitions. Air Quality & Conflict Spillover: With Hormuz and regional tensions driving market stress, analysts note oil prices have stayed relatively contained despite escalation threats—yet the risk remains skewed.

Biodiversity & Protected Areas: Saudi Arabia launched “Wildlife Destinations,” a national push to let residents and visitors experience deserts, mountains, islands, coasts and marine habitats—backed by habitat restoration, reintroductions and expanded protected areas. Water Security: In Qatar, ACCIONA says desalination infrastructure underpins resilience, supplying nearly half of the country’s freshwater and operating around the clock as GCC diversification accelerates. Climate Extremes: The EU’s Copernicus service reports May 2026 as the second-warmest on record globally, with intense early heatwaves in Europe plus drought in parts and severe flooding in parts of Türkiye and the region. Nuclear Oversight: The IAEA board demanded Iran fully cooperate—report uranium stocks and grant inspectors access—aiming to prevent diversion of near weapons-grade material. Shipping & Environment Risk: With the Strait of Hormuz under strain, a tanker incident near Oman was reported with no environmental impact yet, but authorities urged caution as attacks continue. Clean Industry Finance: A new report says MENA is becoming a major clean industry financing hub, with hundreds of projects in clean fuels, fertilisers, steel and aluminium. Energy Shock Fallout: Iran-war-linked energy price pressures are rippling through the region’s economies, with analysts warning of growth and inflation stress. Heat Preparedness: Researchers flag major city heat risk ahead of El Niño, including Basra and several South Asian and Middle East-linked hotspots.

Energy Security & Renewables: Oman’s Marsa LNG is set to get a 280MW solar boost after Nama PWP issued a tender for supervisory consultancy services, with applications due 26 July. Climate & Water Under Fire: In Iran’s Hormozgan province, US strikes reportedly destroyed two drinking-water reservoirs, cutting off supply to over 20,000 residents amid extreme heat. War, Markets & Energy Prices: US CPI hit 4.2% in May, with energy costs rising sharply as Strait of Hormuz disruption fears keep oil and fuel volatility front and center. Coastlines & Biodiversity: A report warns Israel’s coastline is eroding fast from rising seas and unchecked construction, raising new urgency for coastal protection. Human Rights & Environmental Governance: UN rights chief Volker Turk urged G7 leaders to put human rights at the heart of summit talks, linking conflict, inequality and climate crisis. Regional Energy Diplomacy: Egypt says it has fully cleared $6.1bn in oil and gas arrears, aiming to restart investment and production momentum. COP31 Focus: Turkey is pushing an “electrification” priority for COP31, including a 2035 global electricity target. Food & Water Safety: World Bank financing for Mozambique includes water safety and rural resilience, citing climate shocks and Middle East conflict impacts.

COP31 Electrification Push: Türkiye, COP31 host, is putting electrification at the center of talks in Bonn, backing a voluntary goal to reach 35% of global energy demand from electricity by 2035, framed as a way to cut exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets. EU Carbon Market Fight: EU states, industry and environmental groups are clashing over reforms to the Emissions Trading System ahead of a July 15 proposal, with the Iran-driven energy shock adding pressure. Gulf Finance Resilience: S&P says GCC credit profiles are holding up despite the Iran conflict, though longer Strait of Hormuz disruptions could deepen corporate stress as buffers erode. Regional Energy Cooperation: Kuwait Petroleum and Egypt discussed expanding investment across oil and gas, while Saudi Arabia and Türkiye signed MoUs on logistics and railway tech—explicitly including steps to reduce the sector’s environmental impact. Shipping Under Strain: Renewed Red Sea and Israel-Iran tensions are again raising fears for supply chains, freight costs and energy flows through key chokepoints like Bab el-Mandeb and Suez. Climate Extremes Signal Risk: Copernicus reports May 2026 as the second-warmest on record globally, with Europe seeing intense early heatwaves and uneven rainfall, including flooding in parts of Turkey.

COP31 Electrification Push: Turkey’s COP31 hosts are urging countries to back a voluntary goal to lift electricity to 35% of global energy demand by 2035, aiming to cut fossil fuel use and shield households from volatile prices. Energy Security Meets Climate Planning: At Doha’s Al-Attiyah Foundation CEO Roundtable, leaders stressed building climate resilience into long-term energy investment as geopolitics increasingly drives policy. Strait of Hormuz Risk Warning: Iran’s foreign minister warned that foreign forces near Iran face “constant risk” after Trump said an Apache helicopter was shot down, escalating tensions around one of the world’s key energy chokepoints. Middle East Conflict and Energy Costs: Markets and fuel prices remain jumpy as oil falls and shipping disruptions persist, keeping energy security at the center of regional and global planning. Water & Adaptation Funding: Egypt and the World Bank discussed financing for water security and climate adaptation, as Nile pressures and water scarcity continue to mount. Palestinian Rights Under Fire: A UN inquiry said civilians in Gaza and the West Bank face systematic abuses by Israeli forces, settlers and Hamas, underscoring how conflict compounds environmental and humanitarian crises. Jordan Resources Debate: A Jordanian expert argued the country’s gas, oil shale and minerals are underdeveloped and called for rebuilding exploration institutions to unlock revenue and cut public debt.

Energy Security & Plastics: Japan warns that Strait of Hormuz disruption could spike naphtha prices and force cuts in plastic-linked production, renewing calls to ditch single-use packaging and shift toward reusable and package-free options. Maritime Risk: A US Apache helicopter crash near the Strait of Hormuz comes as Iran-Israel tensions flare, underscoring how conflict logistics can quickly spill into the environment and shipping lanes. Aviation Emissions Pressure: IATA says airlines face an extra $100bn jet-fuel bill this year, with profits halving and fares rising—fuel shocks that can also worsen aviation’s climate footprint. Climate Tech & Cooling Demand: A market forecast puts centrifugal chillers on track to reach $6bn by 2034, driven by energy-efficiency needs in data centers and industry. Carbon Accounting in the Region: Broome International Airport in Australia hits carbon-neutrality for direct operations under Airport Carbon Accreditation, a model for regional aviation decarbonisation. Water & Weather Control: Kazakhstan trials artificial rain with UAE support, while Kyrgyzstan raises concerns about cross-border climate impacts. Renewables & Industry in Oman: Oman’s Duqm secures major investment for green hydrogen and ammonia, framed as Vision 2040 diversification with cleaner supply chains.

Water Security in Israel: Israel’s Water Authority backed a long-term plan to boost desalination to 2.3 billion cubic meters a year by 2050 and 2.75 billion by 2075, allowing private firms to plan and build large plants to speed delivery as climate change and urban growth strain supplies. Climate Reporting in Egypt: Egypt finalized its Fourth National Communication and first Biennial Transparency Report, with work funded by the Global Environment Facility and implemented with UNDP, while nearing updated climate targets for its next NDCs. Marine Life in the Eastern Mediterranean: Haifa University researchers spotted two rare sperm whales off Israel’s southern coast, but had to cut a deep-sea survey short due to an Iran-Israel missile alert. Regional Energy and Food Risks: FAO warned the Strait of Hormuz crisis is a global food-security threat, especially via fertilizer and production shocks, urging countries to keep agricultural inputs trading and protect humanitarian corridors. Jordan’s Resource Push: An energy expert said Jordan has major untapped gas, oil shale, and mineral potential, arguing weaker exploration institutions have held back development.

Aviation Fuel Shock: IATA says airline profits could be cut in half to about $23bn in 2026 as Middle East conflict drives up jet fuel costs and disrupts routes, squeezing margins. Climate Diplomacy: Bonn climate talks get underway ahead of Antalya, with negotiators pushing for stronger emissions cuts and more climate finance, while groups urge faster fossil-fuel phaseout. Marine Conservation: Egypt launched the Egyptian Red Sea Initiative to protect coral reefs, boost climate resilience, and grow sustainable tourism, backed by UNDP and the Global Fund for Coral Reefs. Industrial Greening: Egypt’s MSMEDA says it has financed green economy projects since 2014 and is funding dual-fuel vehicle conversion to cut emissions and costs. Energy Transition Finance: The EU proposes easing fiscal rules so countries can invest in grids, storage, solar, heat pumps and EVs amid energy-price pressure tied to the region. Water & Land Restoration: Coverage highlights how China’s “Great Green Wall” endures via long-term funding and local incentives—an approach many Gulf and other dryland projects struggle to sustain. Regional Mediation: Qatar and Iran discussed mediation efforts as volatility rises, underscoring how conflict spillovers keep hitting energy and trade.