AGP Executive Report

Gulf Security Shock: Iran launched attacks on U.S. allies across the Gulf after renewed U.S. strikes, with drones reported over Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, the UAE and Iraq’s Kurdish region—raising fears of wider disruption to energy and travel routes. Travel Warnings: The U.S. State Department upgraded advisories for Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain to “Level 3: Reconsider Travel,” citing missile and drone risks plus possible airspace closures and flight cancellations. Climate Risk in the Horn: A strong El Niño is settling over East Africa as regional conflicts and fragile humanitarian systems leave Sudan, South Sudan and Ethiopia especially exposed to drought and flooding. Water & Energy Stress: Israel’s desalination systems remain nonfunctional amid water stress, while reports link air pollution to thousands of premature deaths and major economic costs. COP31 Momentum: Eastern Mediterranean University joined Türkiye’s COP31 “Oceans & Seas Action Agenda” workshop in Istanbul ahead of the Antalya summit in November. Green Finance Push (Jordan): Jordanian experts say rising women’s economic participation is a positive labor-market signal, but warn progress must translate into quality jobs and better transport and care services.

Strait of Hormuz Security Shock: Iran and the US traded fresh strikes again, with reports of missiles hitting or targeting shipping and US bases across the region—renewing fears for energy flows and pushing oil higher. Desalination Under Pressure: Israel’s water supply is under stress as turbidity shuts down desalination plants, raising the stakes for drought-proofing in a region already facing climate-linked water strain. UAE Climate Tech Push: UAE renewable energy capacity has surged over the past decade, with new momentum for solar and clean power buildout. COP31 Forestry Recovery: UNESCO backed a Hyrcanian Forest wildfire recovery and preparedness initiative, focusing on restoring ecosystems and reducing future fire risk. Water Security in Gaza: WHO warned of deteriorating water quality and rising disease risks in Gaza ahead of winter. Arab Digital Policy: Ooredoo, UNDP and Doha Institute convened Arab digital and AI policy leaders to accelerate more inclusive, sustainable digital economies. Education Access in Sharjah: Sharjah’s ruler ordered free schooling for Sudanese students, while also tightening teacher accountability—an indirect but important lever for long-term resilience.

Strait of Hormuz Security: Two Saudi oil supertankers were hit by “unknown projectiles” minutes apart while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring how quickly shipping risks are escalating and how diplomacy is struggling to reopen the route. Water & Desalination Stress: Israel’s water supply is under strain as turbidity shuts down desalination plants, raising pressure on already tight regional water systems. Renewables Push: IRENA’s chief warned at Middle East Energy that disruptions can hit economies fast, boosting the case for diversification, grids, storage and flexibility; Saudi Arabia meanwhile is projecting major renewable growth through 2035 under Vision 2030. Marine Conservation: Türkiye’s seagrass rehabilitation work is being scientifically monitored by Eastern Mediterranean University, aiming to restore Posidonia oceanica and protect Mediterranean ecosystems. Climate Grants for Youth: Nairobi was selected for the 2026–2027 Youth Climate Action Fund, with grants up to Ksh647,250 for local climate projects. Wildfire Losses in Iraq: Ten crop fires in Iraq’s Duhok damaged grain during harvest, with estimated losses of about $108,000. Energy Markets & Costs: Global bond markets sold off sharply as oil-price and Middle East tension fears fed into inflation and higher borrowing costs.

Dark-Sky Tourism in Saudi Arabia: Red Sea Global teamed up with DarkSky International to create the world’s first resort-scale DarkSky certification, aiming to cut light pollution and protect wildlife rhythms at Desert Rock and Nujuma. Responsible Hospitality in the UAE: Atlantis Dubai secured multiple sustainability accreditations, reporting cuts in energy use, emissions and water consumption across its properties. Climate-Responsive Luxury in Dubai: Six Senses The Palm is set to open Q4 2026 with a “restoration” design—native planting, shaded courtyards and recycled/local materials—positioning the Palm as a cooler, lower-impact coastal stay. AI Cooling Push in the Gulf: SLB agreed to buy Kelvion for $4.1B, expanding data-center thermal management as AI workloads drive higher power density and more heat to reject. Hormuz Risk and Energy Prices: Renewed US-Iran exchanges lifted oil prices and revived fears of shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, with knock-on pressure for regional energy costs. Food Security Trade Drive: Pakistan and Saudi Arabia pushed toward $3B in agri-food exports, with fruit and value-added sectors seeking better market access and certifications.

Strait of Hormuz Pollution Dispute: Iran says it seized a bulk carrier after alleged oil and sludge dumping, cleaned the spill, and moved the case to court—while also pushing for transit fees to fund environmental protection. Heat Risk for Older Adults: A Stanford study warns that “uncompensable heat stress” will hit people 60+ far more often than younger adults as the planet warms, raising urgent public-health stakes for the region’s aging populations. Nepal Floods’ Climate Link: Catastrophic floods in Nepal and Tibet have killed hundreds and left thousands missing, with China linking the disaster to climate change and rescue teams searching hydropower tunnels. Renewables Reality Check: A explainer tackles whether renewable electricity can be reliable and affordable, arguing grids can work with a mix of variable and firm sources plus storage. Air Cargo Demand: IATA reports July air cargo demand up 3.9% year-on-year, but warns higher fuel prices and geopolitical tensions could complicate the outlook. Mecca Pact Expansion Talk: Bangladesh signals no immediate obstacle to joining the Saudi-Pakistan-Türkiye defense pact, potentially reshaping regional security cooperation.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: The U.S. struck Iranian rocket launchers on the Strait of Hormuz after a month-long lull, as Iran warned of retaliation and reports also flagged tanker incidents near Oman—raising fresh risks for the region’s shipping and potential environmental spill impacts. Climate Extremes in the Gulf: Scientists warn the “Super El Niño” could persist into 2027, bringing harsher heatwaves and worsening water-table stress across GCC countries. Food Security Push: Qatar Chamber talks in Brazil focused on food security and animal protein partnerships, while Pakistan and Saudi Arabia agreed to lift agricultural and food exports to $3bn in two years—both tied to water and land pressures. Desertification Leadership: Egypt is set to host UNCCD COP18 in 2028, and Zimbabwe assumed the African Group chair for the desertification convention, keeping drought and land degradation on the agenda. Urban Greening in Kuwait: Kuwait Municipality faces calls to let residents use front setbacks for planting to cut dust and improve local microclimates. Ancient Marine Discovery: Egypt’s Western Desert “shark graveyard” fossil find highlights a once-rich marine ecosystem 70+ million years old.

Water Security: Oman launched a two-day “Water Resources Sustainability: Water and Climate Change” symposium in Salalah, focusing on climate-driven water stress, adaptation planning, modern water tech, and policy partnerships. Renewables Push: Egypt’s electricity ministry reviewed progress with Masdar on solar, wind and battery storage, including a 200-MW Gulf of Suez wind project (grid connection targeted for Dec 2027) plus large-scale wind/solar and storage plans aimed at lifting renewables to 45% by 2028. Marine Protection Dispute: Türkiye’s new Aegean marine parks plan is set to spark renewed friction with Greece, which argues the designations violate international law and plans to raise the issue with EU foreign ministers. Digital Environment Monitoring: Kocaeli (Türkiye) began a two-year digital twin project for the Gulf of İzmit to model pollution loads, track water quality and test rehabilitation scenarios using continuous measurements and simulations. Shipping Under Strain: Strait of Hormuz traffic reportedly plunged as Iran restricted tanker movements, with daily crossings dropping sharply during peak tension—raising knock-on risks for regional energy flows and marine biosecurity. Climate Disaster Warning: Nepal issued fresh flood alerts as rescue efforts continued after catastrophic Himalayan flooding, with thousands missing and hydropower workers among those unaccounted for.

Aquaculture & Water-Efficient Farming: NAPCO Aqua is pushing Saudi Arabia’s fish-farming growth with RAS and biofloc plans, including a 2,000-tonne pilot farm aimed at cutting operating costs and boosting output. Regional Diplomacy for Climate-Sensitive Stability: Egypt and Türkiye urged stronger de-escalation efforts to restore the Iran–US diplomatic track, arguing regional security is key for stability. Maritime Safety & Biosecurity: Türkiye summoned Ukraine’s ambassador after attacks on Turkish-operated Black Sea vessels, warning that threats extend to navigation and the environment. Energy Costs & Climate Pressure: A report says the Iran war has inflated the world’s energy import bill by up to $330bn in six months, with the Persian Gulf disruption hitting the EU hardest. Drought & Water Demand: A new focus on data-centre water use highlights how water scarcity is reshaping investment risk, as regulators tighten supplies. Desert Development: Iraq’s Al-Rutba district is pitching its groundwater, minerals and power infrastructure to attract agriculture, industry and logistics projects as security improves. Solar Momentum: Egypt is exploring expanding solar power and green finance in local development plans. Carbon Capture: Ras Al Khaimah opened a carbon-capture plant as part of its net-zero drive.

Air Pollution Alert (Baghdad): A sharp sulfur-like odor returned overnight across multiple Baghdad neighborhoods, reviving health fears after a prior 48-hour outbreak; the Green Iraq Observatory links the recurring episodes to untreated industrial emissions, open burning, and weak environmental oversight. Climate-Energy Shift (Iran war): New reporting says the six-month US-Iran conflict has driven huge extra fossil-fuel costs for importers and is nudging governments and companies toward renewables, with clear winners and losers emerging. Carbon Capture (UAE): Ras Al Khaimah opened a carbon-capture and utilisation plant aimed at capturing about 17,000 tonnes of CO₂ annually for industrial use, boosting net-zero efforts. Power Demand (Abu Dhabi): Abu Dhabi expects electricity demand to double by 2050 as AI, computing, population and the economy expand, while renewables are ramped up for net-zero targets. Food & Fertiliser Resilience (Qatar): Qatar Chamber highlighted food security and fertiliser supply resilience at the Arab-Brazilian Economic Forum, stressing logistics and strategic reserves. Health Access (Pakistan): A five-year school health programme will screen 7,000+ children in non-formal schools, providing vision, hearing and disability support. Nuclear Test Ban Memory (Kazakhstan): Kazakhstan marks International Day against Nuclear Tests, recalling Semipalatinsk’s closure and the wider push for disarmament and a test-ban treaty.

Climate & Land Restoration in Gaza: A Gaza family is trying to revive a 1.2-hectare plot of grapevines and fig trees after Israeli bulldozers destroyed it, using irrigation and rehabilitation to recover only about 10% of the trees so far. Renewables & Water/Power Security: Iran’s military says it has “strategic surprises” ready for any future war, while multiple reports across the week link the Iran conflict to renewed interest in renewables and to pressure on regional energy systems. Regional Security Pact With Environmental Stakes: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif hailed the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement as a step toward unity and peace, as questions grow over whether other countries—like Egypt, Bangladesh or Iran—could join, with knock-on effects for regional stability and shipping corridors. Land & Drought Action at UNCCD COP17: WWF says COP17 in Mongolia advanced rangelands and grasslands restoration and investment, but negotiators failed to agree a drought preparedness and management framework, pushing key decisions to COP18. Nature Protection in the Gulf: Oman’s environment authority expanded nature reserves to cover more than 17,000 square kilometres, aiming to strengthen protection as climate and development pressures mount.

Saudi-Pak Environmental Cooperation: Saudi Environment Minister Abdulrahman AlFadley met Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir at GHQ, reaffirming ties and pushing deeper collaboration in agriculture and environmental sustainability. Greece-Turkey Marine Protection Row: Greece formally warned Turkey over plans to institutionalise two Turkish marine environmental parks, saying they conflict with international law and that Athens is “monitoring and acting.” Turkey Plastic Waste Pressure: A Turkish plastic-waste report says the country generates far more plastic waste than the global average and argues recycling alone won’t fix the problem, urging action across the whole production-to-waste chain. Egypt Gas Supply Crunch: Egypt faces a widening domestic gas shortfall as production declines and power demand rises; a new Cyprus LNG project could help feed Egypt and Europe, but risks remain. COP31 Youth Climate Push: Uzbekistan hosted an international youth environmental congress, with participation from across Central Asia and Türkiye, focused on protecting nature, resources, and climate education. Oman Nature Reserves Expansion: Oman’s environment authority expanded its nature reserves network to cover more than 17,000 square kilometres. Israel-Greece Air Shield: Israel and Greece moved ahead on a major air and missile defence network deal, aimed at countering drone and missile threats.

Cybersecurity & Water Safety: U.S. CISA says attackers probed and in some cases altered internet-exposed PLCs across more than 100 water and wastewater systems in July, with incidents reported across multiple states—raising fears of unsafe operations even where contamination wasn’t yet seen. Desertification & Land Restoration: Qatar highlighted rangeland protection and ecosystem restoration at COP17’s ministerial dialogue, stressing resilience in arid conditions and work across dozens of natural areas. Marine & Coastal Environment: Qatar and Iran discussed reopening the Strait of Hormuz via an interim framework, as shipping risks and mine threats continue to disrupt regional waters. Climate Education & Nature Protection: Qatar’s National Museum of Qatar and ExxonMobil launched the ExxonMobil STEAM Festival, including a “Mangrove Lab” focused on preserving local mangroves. Renewables Policy: Qatar’s COP17 rangeland push comes as regional energy debates intensify; meanwhile, the U.S. and Iran conflict keeps pressure on fuel and infrastructure planning. Health & Safety Standards: UN and UNICEF mourned newborn deaths in a hospital fire in Pakistan, calling for urgent fire-prevention and safety upgrades in health facilities.

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Risk: A tanker was hit by an “unknown projectile” near Oman’s Khasab; the fire was put out, crew were safe, and there was no reported environmental impact, as UKMTO urged vessels to transit with caution. Diplomacy for Navigation: Qatar’s PM met Iran’s foreign minister in Tehran, discussing a proposed temporary Hormuz maritime corridor plus a joint demining plan, with both sides stressing sovereignty and freedom of navigation. UAE Net-Zero Push: Rystad Energy says the war has delayed but not derailed the UAE’s net-zero ambitions, with continued momentum for solar across the region. Türkiye Climate Policy: Turkey published rules for its Emissions Trading System, aiming to cut greenhouse gases and align monitoring and market operations with the EU ETS. Air Quality Tech Demand: A market outlook points to rising investment in air quality monitoring systems across the Middle East and beyond. Energy Security Pressure: UK storage concerns are rising ahead of winter, with energy-price impacts linked to the Iran war. Regional Climate-Conflict Link: Pope Leo warned that war fuels environmental destruction, echoing the growing climate-security debate.

Strait of Hormuz Talks: Iran and Oman agreed a temporary Hormuz revenue-sharing/traffic plan, with Tehran warning the waterway could stay closed unless U.S. terms are accepted—raising fresh stakes for regional shipping and Gulf energy flows. Desertification & Land Restoration: Qatar backed Middle East Green Initiative work on restoring degraded lands and boosting vegetation cover at COP17, aligning with UNCCD efforts to rejuvenate millions of hectares by 2030. Climate Pressure on Food & Water: A study links fossil-fuel emissions to shrinking snowpack and reduced river flows across Western states, with “carbon majors” driving a large share of drying—another reminder of how Gulf-linked oil and gas impacts ripple far beyond the region. Energy Costs & Air Travel Disruption: UK airport passenger numbers hit a record despite Middle East disruption, but travel to Dubai fell sharply—showing how conflict reshapes demand. Biodiversity Loss in Egypt: Egypt’s “shark graveyard” research adds to growing signals of environmental change in the region’s ancient and modern ecosystems. Noise & Aviation: DHL, El Al and Turkish Airlines were fined over aircraft noise at night, keeping pressure on cleaner, quieter operations.

Wildfire Claims: Lebanon says Israeli military activity has burned 160 sq km of forest and farmland in the south since 2023, with officials warning of a “scorched-earth policy” as heat fuels more blazes. Maritime Security: Iran and Oman agreed a temporary Strait of Hormuz shipping lane, with mines-clearing and a longer-term corridor still tied to US commitments—keeping energy and environment risks in the spotlight. Renewable Water Upgrade: Cyprus’ Mia Milia wastewater plant in Nicosia added a solar farm (1,081 kWp) to cut the facility’s electricity footprint. Land Restoration Push: UNCCD COP17 in Mongolia awarded three “Restoration Flagships” in Brazil, the Sahel and Saudi Arabia, targeting nearly 5 million hectares restored by 2030. Climate Reality Check: A Greenpeace-linked report highlights record heatwaves and wildfire smoke across Europe, Asia, Africa and North America, arguing extreme weather is accelerating with fossil-fuel use. Energy Cost Pressure: UK energy bills face renewed strain as the price cap rises, with analysts linking the jump to Middle East conflict-driven gas volatility. Regional Trade & Rebuild: Türkiye’s trade minister met Syria’s officials in Damascus to push a $10B trade target and discuss transport and border cooperation tied to reconstruction.

Strait of Hormuz Safety: Iran and Oman said talks on a temporary Hormuz corridor and mine-clearance are progressing, but a tanker was still disabled after an “unknown projectile” hit its engine room off Oman, raising fresh spill and shipping-risk fears. Maritime Pressure: Iran also blacklisted 45 tankers for “violations,” with two Indian ships named, warning of future fines, seizure or confiscation—another blow to energy logistics. Energy Transition Policy: Spain’s draft royal decree would require data centers to source at least 80% of their hourly electricity from renewables, pushing cleaner power use as the Middle East conflict tightens energy markets. Renewables Finance: Kuwait’s KFAED approved a KD 3m loan for El Salvador’s solar plant, underscoring continued solar investment momentum. Land & Climate Governance: UNCCD/CBD/UNFCCC leaders warned that land degradation and climate impacts are compounding economic strain and food/water risks ahead of COP17 discussions. Biodiversity/Heritage: Oman expanded nature reserves to cover 17,000+ sq km, aiming to strengthen habitat protection.